Economic calendar

Fed Governor Waller: discussion on artificial intelligence

A discussion focused on artificial intelligence. It would matter for rates only if Waller explicitly links productivity, employment or investment to the policy stance; the event title does not imply policy remarks.

JPMorgan Chase: Q3 2026 results

Opens bank earnings season. Items to check: net interest income, provisions, credit quality, deposits, investment banking and guidance. Broad improvement with stable credit would be firmer; mixed figures require separating trading from commercial banking; rising provisions or funding costs would be a more fragile read.

Goldman Sachs: Q3 2026 results

A capital-markets benchmark. Watch trading, investment-banking fees, deal backlog, asset management, provisions and expenses. Diversified growth would be firmer; strength concentrated in trading would be more environment-dependent; weaker activity and higher costs would be softer.

UnitedHealth Group: Q3 2026 results and call

A health-insurance benchmark. Watch the medical cost ratio, membership, Optum, reserves and full-year guidance. Controlled costs and maintained guidance would be firmer; mixed figures require separating insurance from Optum; higher medical utilisation or a guidance cut would weaken the read.

Existing-home sales (September)

Measures completed sales of previously owned homes. Above consensus with balanced inventory and prices would indicate greater resilience; in line, stability; below, weaker traction amid high mortgage rates. Separate volumes, supply and prices.

Fed Vice Chair Bowman: supervision and regulation

A discussion on supervision and regulation. The focus is capital, liquidity and banking; it would alter the macro read only if it includes explicit comments on inflation, employment or rates.

Morgan Stanley: Q3 2026 results

A benchmark for investment banking and wealth management. Watch trading, fees, asset gathering, margins and expense guidance. Joint improvement in markets and wealth would be firmer; a concentrated read requires caution; weaker activity or flows would be more fragile.

U.S. CPI (September)

The week's central release. Above the consensus range, especially in core and services, would reinforce persistent-inflation risk; in line, it would keep the debate open; below, it would ease pressure if the composition also moderates. Shelter, services excluding shelter and revisions matter more than an isolated tenth.

Real earnings (September)

Combines wages and inflation to measure purchasing power. A real increase would be consistent with greater spending capacity; stability, continuity; a decline, lower purchasing power. Read it alongside CPI and hours worked.

Federal Reserve Beige Book

Compiles qualitative evidence from the twelve districts on activity, labour and prices. Broader price pressures and demand would be more restrictive; mixed signals, continuity; broad cooling with moderating prices, more dovish. It is not a quantitative statistic.

TSMC: Q3 2026 results and guidance

The chip-manufacturing benchmark. Watch gross margin, advanced nodes, AI demand, utilisation, capex and guidance. Growth with firm margins and guidance would be stronger; strong revenue with margin pressure, mixed; weaker utilisation or guidance, softer for semiconductors.

U.S. PPI (September)

Measures prices received by producers. Above consensus with breadth in services and final demand would be more inflationary; in line, continuity; below, less cost pressure. Components feeding PCE and revisions can dominate the headline.

U.S. retail sales (September)

An early read on nominal consumption. Above consensus with a firm control group would indicate greater resilience; in line, normalisation; below, lost momentum. It is not inflation-adjusted and is subject to revision.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (October)

An early regional survey. Above the prior reading with firm orders and employment would indicate stronger activity; in line, continuity; below, moderation. Prices paid and the six-month outlook can change the read.

Weekly jobless claims

Initial claims track new layoffs and continuing claims unemployment persistence. Above prior readings in both would be consistent with cooling; in line, stability; below, low separations. Revisions and the four-week average help filter noise.

Business inventories (August)

Combines manufacturers', wholesalers' and retailers' inventories and sales. Inventories aligned with firm sales would be consistent with restocking; a mixed reading requires checking the ratio; accumulation with weak sales would raise overhang risk.

Fed Chair Warsh: conversation with the IMF Managing Director

A conversation between the Fed Chair and Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok. Watch for explicit references to inflation, employment, rates and global risks; the format does not guarantee policy news.

U.S. import and export prices (September)

Measures price pressure in external trade. Above the prior reading with breadth beyond energy would be more inflationary; in line, continuity; below, moderation. Pass-through to consumer prices is not automatic.

Industrial production and capacity utilisation (September)

Measures manufacturing, mining and utilities output. Above consensus with broad manufacturing strength would indicate greater momentum; in line, stabilisation; below, weaker activity. Utilities, revisions and utilisation should be separated from the headline.

Monthly options expiration

Monthly index and stock options expire. The gamma that was pinning price rolls off, and the following week tends to move more.