Economic calendar

ISM Services PMI (September)

A national survey of the economy's largest sector. Above the prior reading with firm activity and orders would point to stronger momentum; in line, continuity; below, moderation. Employment and prices paid can change the headline interpretation.

U.S. international trade balance (August)

Measures exports, imports and the goods-and-services balance. A narrower deficit than the prior reading would support trade's GDP contribution; in line, little change; a wider deficit would reduce it. Separate goods, services and revisions.

U.S. Treasury 3-year note auction

Tests demand at the front end. Strong cover, firm indirect bidding and low dealer take-down would be a firmer result; metrics near prior auctions, neutral; weak cover and high dealer take-down, more fragile. A when-issued reference is required to judge a tail or stop-through.

EIA weekly petroleum inventories

Covers crude, gasoline and distillate stocks, plus production and refinery utilisation. Broad draws with firm demand would indicate a tighter balance; a mixed report requires separating products; broad builds would point to more slack. It is not a price signal by itself.

U.S. Treasury 10-year note reopening

Tests duration demand. Firm cover and indirect bidding with low dealer take-down would be a solid composition; figures near the prior auction, neutral; weak demand and high dealer take-down, more fragile. Without a verifiable when-issued level it should not be labelled a tail or stop-through.

FOMC minutes from September 15–16

Detail the discussion behind the latest decision. Greater concern about inflation and restrictive rates would be a more hawkish reading; a balanced assessment, continuity; more concern about jobs and growth, more dovish. Nuance and dispersion matter more than any isolated sentence.

Fed Governor Waller: economic outlook

Remarks devoted to the economic outlook. Watch for explicit changes in his assessment of inflation, employment and the policy stance after the minutes; the event title does not prejudge the tone.

Weekly jobless claims

Initial claims track new layoffs and continuing claims unemployment persistence. Above prior readings in both would be consistent with cooling; in line, stability; below, low separations. Revisions and the four-week average help filter noise.

Wholesale trade: sales and inventories (August)

Measures wholesale sales, inventories and their ratio. Firm sales with a stable ratio would be consistent with healthy demand; a mixed reading requires separating restocking and sales; rising inventories with weak sales would raise overhang risk. It is subject to revision.

U.S. Treasury 30-year bond reopening

This is the week's most duration-sensitive auction. Firm cover and indirect bidding with low dealer take-down would be a solid composition; metrics near the prior sale, neutral; weak demand and high dealer take-down, more fragile. The curve, TLT and duration assets should confirm the interpretation.

Preliminary Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations (October)

Combines sentiment, current conditions, expectations and expected inflation. Sentiment above the prior reading with contained inflation would be a more favourable mix; in line, continuity; lower sentiment or higher inflation expectations, a less comfortable combination. This is a preliminary reading.