The week ahead
Economic calendar
Week of 31 August – 6 September 2026
How the week went
Employment rebounded, services held firm and cost pressure remained uncomfortable.
The week delivered a mixed macro signal that was firmer than the early labour data suggested. JOLTS and ADP missed consensus, but nonfarm payrolls rebounded to 162 thousand, unemployment held at 4.1% and June and July received a combined +55 thousand revision. At the same time, the ISM services index accelerated to 55.4 with prices paid at 72.6, while manufacturing eased to 54.6. Taken together, the data combine resilient activity with still-elevated price pressure; the figures alone do not settle the balance between growth and inflation.
- ·Payrolls exceeded the 56 thousand consensus and 21 thousand prior reading, with unemployment steady at 4.1% and wages up 3.1% year over year.
- ·The labour signal was not uniform: JOLTS (7.271 million) and ADP (38 thousand) missed consensus, while initial jobless claims remained contained at 206 thousand.
- ·Services accelerated to 55.4, but its employment index remained in contraction at 47.8 and prices paid rose to 72.6; manufacturing eased to 54.6.
- ·Broadcom beat the EPS consensus at $3.32, but its $34.8 billion revenue outlook came in below the $35.03 billion consensus.
Jobs week: the last big labour print before an FOMC now flirting with a hike, and Broadcom sets the AI note.
8 releasesMadrid time. New York time in brackets.
The event of the week
Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate (August)
Friday 4 September · 14:30 (08:30 NY)
The print of the week and the last big employment report before the 16 September FOMC. The trap is in the asymmetry: with inflation not easing and the market already pricing a possible hike, a strong number confirms the hawkish bias, but a weak one is not enough to rule it out if prices stay hot. Watch average hourly earnings over the payrolls headline: it is what the Fed fears will feed inflation.
How to read the colours
- Top impact
- Second-tier macro
- Central banks
- Earnings
- Market plumbing
Session close
A red but contained start to the week: the S&P 500 closed at 7,686.14 (-0.33%), the Dow at 53,185.90 (-0.70%, about 370 points) and the Nasdaq at 26,370.89 (-0.12%); despite the day's fall, August still ended as the Dow's fifth straight winning month. The striking part is that the ten-year Treasury did not act as a haven: its yield rose 4 basis points to 4.76%, the highest since January 2025, and the thirty-year climbed to 5.26%. Per what was published, bets on a 25-basis-point rate hike at September's meeting jumped to 62%, from around 40% a week earlier, with WTI crude up 3.35% to $86.19.
CNBC y Yahoo Finance — cierre del 31 de agosto de 2026
Also that day
US struck Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz
About a fifth of the world's oil passes through Hormuz, so the first US military action in the area in a month pushed crude up: WTI cleared $86 and Brent topped $90. The chain does not end at the pump. Costlier crude seeps into headline inflation with a lag of weeks, and that lag lands the effect right on top of the 16 September FOMC; that is why rate-hike bets surged and why bonds, which usually gain in a geopolitical scare, lost ground instead. An energy shock is priced as inflationary, not merely as fear.
Yahoo Finance / CNBC — 31 de agosto de 2026
- (10:00 NY)
ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)
Manufacturing has strung together seven months of expansion and hit 55.6 in July, its highest since 2022; the number that actually matters is not the headline but prices paid, because that is where the tariff creeps into cost before it reaches CPI. With the Fed watching inflation, a hot prices component weighs more than the PMI headline itself.
- Actual
- 54,6
- Forecast
- 55,2
- Previous
- 55,6
Source: ISM; consenso vía Reuters
What it means and what it affects
A survey of manufacturing purchasing managers on orders, production, employment and prices. Above 50 the sector is expanding; below, contracting.
It is one of the first releases of the month and it is a survey, not a count: it arrives ahead of actual activity and is used as a leading read. Manufacturing is a small share of US GDP, but it turns before the rest of the economy.
If it comes in above
Stronger manufacturing supports cyclicals and commodities, and reinforces the case for an economy that is holding up.
If it comes in below
A weak print, especially below 50 for several months running, feeds the slowdown thesis and usually benefits bonds.
The catch: The prices-paid sub-index often moves more than the headline, because it is an early inflation clue. And the level matters less than the direction: going from 47 to 49 is still contraction, but it is an improvement.
Source: Institute for Supply Management · index, 50 is the threshold
Second-tier macroUS - (10:00 NY)
JOLTS job openings (July)
The appetiser for jobs week. The number of openings matters less than the quits rate: when people stop switching jobs it means they no longer trust they will find another, and that turn shows up here before Friday's payrolls.
- Actual
- 7,271 M
- Forecast
- 7,300 M
- Previous
- 7,182 M (revisado desde 7,359 M)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; consenso vía Reuters
Second-tier macroUS
Session close
The S&P 500 closed at 7,631.47 (-0.7%), the Dow at 52,766.88 (-0.8%), the Nasdaq at 26,099.77 (-1.0%) and the Russell 2000 at 2,920.13 (-1.2%). The Associated Press described a session under pressure from higher oil and bond yields: Brent rose 4.6%, U.S. crude closed above $90 and the ten-year Treasury yield reached 4.79%. The source linked that backdrop to fresh U.S. strikes in Iran; this agenda preserves the attribution and does not present it as independently proven causation.
Associated Press — cierre del 1 de septiembre de 2026
Also that day
U.S. crude closed above $90
The Associated Press reported a 4.6% rise in Brent and a U.S. crude close above $90, alongside a ten-year Treasury yield at 4.79%. For the agenda, this matters as inflation-and-rates context: higher energy costs and yields keep long-duration assets sensitive, but they are not a trading signal and do not allow every market move to be assigned to a single cause.
Associated Press — 1 de septiembre de 2026
- (08:15 NY)
ADP private employment (August)
The private rehearsal for payrolls, two days early. It is not a reliable forecast of the official print —it misses more than it hits— but it sets the tone into Friday: a soft ADP primes the market to read everything that follows as weak.
- Actual
- 38 mil
- Forecast
- 47 mil
- Previous
- 46 mil (revisado desde 44 mil)
Source: ADP Research Institute; consenso vía MarketWatch
What it means and what it affects
Private-sector jobs created according to the payrolls ADP processes, one of the country’s largest payroll providers.
It comes two days before the official report and is read as its appetiser. It moves markets mainly when it surprises a lot, because it shifts the expectation going into Friday.
If it comes in above
It reinforces the tight-labour-market read ahead of the official print.
If it comes in below
It brings the cooling thesis forward, though with limited reliability.
The catch: It correlates poorly with the official payrolls — it measures something else with a different method. It moves more than it should precisely because many treat it as a reliable preview.
Source: ADP Research Institute · thousands of jobs
Second-tier macroUS - (14:00 NY)
Fed Beige Book
The Federal Reserve reported a modest increase in activity since early July: 10 of 12 districts recorded growth and 2 reported no change. Employment edged up and prices continued to rise moderately. The report covers information collected through 24 August and is qualitative, so it has no numerical result or consensus.
Central banksUS - (16:15 NY)
Broadcom earnings (fiscal Q3) · after the close
Broadcom reported revenue of $29.591 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $3.32. AI semiconductor revenue was $16.7 billion, up 221% year over year. For the fourth quarter, it guided to approximately $34.8 billion in total revenue and $21.7 billion in AI semiconductor revenue; Reuters put the total-revenue consensus at $35.03 billion. This was an EPS beat paired with total guidance below expectations.
- Actual
- 3,32 $
- Forecast
- 3,22 $
- Previous
- 1,69 $
Source: Broadcom Investor Relations; consenso de BPA vía Barron's; consenso de guía vía Reuters
EarningsUS
Session close
The S&P 500 closed at 7,666.60 (+0.5%), the Dow at 53,061.95 (+0.6%), the Nasdaq at 26,217.83 (+0.5%) and the Russell 2000 at 2,953.17 (+1.1%). The Associated Press described a rebound supported by large technology stocks and steadier oil prices and bond yields; the ten-year Treasury yield ended at 4.78%, versus 4.79% on Tuesday.
Associated Press — cierre del 2 de septiembre de 2026
Also that day
Nvidia gained more than 3% in the technology rebound
The Associated Press highlighted that Nvidia gained more than 3% and contributed to the advance in the major indexes. The item describes technology-sector participation in the session; it does not by itself imply a signal for the next day.
Associated Press — 2 de septiembre de 2026
- (08:30 NY)
Weekly jobless claims
Initial claims were 206 thousand, nearly in line with consensus. Continuing claims rose to 1.779 million from a revised 1.771 million. The combination keeps layoffs contained, while continuing claims are consistent with slower hiring; by itself it does not establish a sharp deterioration.
- Actual
- 206 mil
- Forecast
- 205 mil
- Previous
- 204 mil (revisado desde 203 mil)
Source: U.S. Department of Labor; consenso vía The Wall Street Journal
What it means and what it affects
How many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time last week. It is the most frequent labour reading there is.
Its value is the frequency: weekly, so it catches a turn in the labour market weeks before any monthly release. It rarely moves markets on its own; what moves markets is its trend.
If it comes in above
More claims point to a deteriorating labour market and support bonds.
If it comes in below
Fewer claims confirm a labour market that is holding.
The catch: It is noisy week to week. Look at the four-week average, not the single print — and holiday and back-to-school weeks get distorted by seasonal adjustment.
Source: Department of Labor · thousands of claims
Second-tier macroUS - (10:00 NY)
ISM Services PMI (August)
The ISM Services PMI accelerated to 55.4. Business activity reached 61.7 and new orders 60.9, while employment remained in contraction at 47.8. Prices paid rose to 72.6, the highest level since October 2022. The combination points to strong demand, weak employment and persistent cost pressure.
- Actual
- 55,4
- Forecast
- 54,3
- Previous
- 54,1
Source: ISM; consenso vía Reuters
What it means and what it affects
The same survey as manufacturing, but for services: retail, finance, health, transport, hospitality.
Services are the bulk of the US economy and its employment, so this says more about where the whole is going than the manufacturing print. It is also where inflation has proved stickiest, because wage costs dominate there.
If it comes in above
Strong services sustain consumption and employment, and with them the part of inflation the Fed finds hardest to bring down.
If it comes in below
A cooling here weighs far more than in manufacturing: it is the slowdown signal the market takes seriously.
Source: Institute for Supply Management · index, 50 is the threshold
Second-tier macroUS
Session close
The S&P 500 gained 1.1%, the Dow 1.2% and the Nasdaq 1.4%. The Associated Press described a session led by large technology companies as yields eased: the ten-year Treasury yield fell to 4.76% from 4.79% and the two-year yield to 4.33% from 4.39%. Brent settled at $95.52 (-0.1%) and U.S. crude at $91.30 (+0.3%).
Associated Press — cierre del 3 de septiembre de 2026
Also that day
Waller lowered immediate rate-hike expectations
Reuters reported that Christopher Waller would support holding rates if upcoming data confirms easing inflation. According to the source, the implied probability of a September hike fell to 50.4% from 63.2% on Wednesday. The condition remains the path of inflation, not a promise to hold rates.
Reuters — 3 de septiembre de 2026
Broadcom fell after revenue guidance missed consensus
The Associated Press reported a 2.9% decline in Broadcom after its revenue outlook fell short of expectations despite beating quarterly estimates. The reaction illustrates the high bar investors have set for companies tied to AI investment.
Associated Press — 3 de septiembre de 2026
- (08:30 NY)
Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate (August)
The print of the week and the last big employment report before the 16 September FOMC. The trap is in the asymmetry: with inflation not easing and the market already pricing a possible hike, a strong number confirms the hawkish bias, but a weak one is not enough to rule it out if prices stay hot. Watch average hourly earnings over the payrolls headline: it is what the Fed fears will feed inflation.
- Actual
- 162 mil nóminas · 4,1 % paro · 0,3 % salarios mensual · 3,1 % salarios interanual · revisiones jun./jul.: +55 mil
- Forecast
- 56 mil nóminas · 4,1 % paro · 3,0 % salarios interanual
- Previous
- 21 mil nóminas (revisado desde -23 mil) · 4,1 % paro · 3,2 % salarios interanual
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation de agosto de 2026 (4 de septiembre de 2026); consenso vía encuesta de Reuters del 4 de septiembre de 2026
What it means and what it affects
How many jobs were created or lost in the US last month, excluding agriculture. It arrives with the unemployment rate and hourly earnings, and the three are read together.
It is the single biggest market mover of the month, because it touches both halves of the Fed’s mandate at once: employment and inflation. A strong labour market sustains consumption and pushes wages; a cooling one brings rate cuts forward. Everything traded until the next Fed meeting gets recalibrated with this number.
If it comes in above
More jobs than expected usually reads as a strong economy and a Fed in no hurry to cut: the dollar and yields tend to rise. For equities it is ambiguous — good economy, but expensive money for longer.
If it comes in below
Fewer jobs brings rate cuts forward, which tends to lift bonds and weaken the dollar. Equities celebrate it… until the number is so bad it stops meaning “lower rates” and starts meaning “recession”.
The catch: The revision to the previous two months comes in the same release and often matters more than the headline. A good headline with a hundred-thousand downward revision is, in fact, a bad number.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · thousands of jobs
Top impactUS
Session close
The S&P 500 closed at 7,718.13 (-0.38%), the Dow at 53,398.15 (-0.54%) and the Nasdaq at 26,505.44 (-0.30%). Reuters described a broad selloff ahead of the three-day weekend after the employment report exceeded consensus; according to the source, the implied probability of a 25-basis-point September rate increase rose from 49.4% on Thursday to 58.4%. The Associated Press put the two-year Treasury yield at 4.38%, up from 4.34%, and the ten-year at 4.78%, up from 4.77%. This agenda preserves those attributions and does not present a single cause as independently proven.
Reuters y Associated Press — cierre del 4 de septiembre de 2026
Also that day
August employment widely exceeded consensus
The BLS reported 162,000 new payrolls versus the 56,000 Reuters consensus, with unemployment steady at 4.1% and combined June and July revisions of +55,000. Reuters said the market raised the implied probability of a September rate increase; next week's CPI and PPI will be the next relevant checks.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics y Reuters — 4 de septiembre de 2026
Lululemon fell after cutting its outlook again
The Associated Press reported a 17.6% decline after quarterly revenue missed estimates and the company lowered its full-year revenue and profit outlook. The move is company-specific and provides consumer-discretionary context; by itself it is not extrapolated to the whole market.
Associated Press — 4 de septiembre de 2026
Oil ended the week near recent highs
The Associated Press reported that Brent settled at $96.28 (+0.8%) and U.S. crude at $91.48 (+0.2%), with weekly gains of 9.2% and 9.7%, respectively. U.S. diesel reached a record $5.85 per gallon. This is relevant inflation and transport-cost context, not a market signal.
Associated Press — 4 de septiembre de 2026
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Previous weeks
- Week of 7–13 September 2026Inflation week: PPI and CPI test whether strong employment can coexist with enough disinflation ahead of the Fed; Oracle gauges real AI-cloud demand.
- Week of 24–30 August 2026PCE and Warsh's Jackson Hole debut set the week; Nvidia provides the counterpoint.
- Week of 17–23 August 2026The FOMC minutes rule a data-light week.
- Week of 10–16 August 2026CPI runs the week: July inflation decides whether Warsh's Fed still has room to move.
- Week of 3–9 August 2026All eyes on US employment.