The week ahead
Economic calendar
Week of 3–9 August 2026
How the week went
Companies earned more than expected and the labour market turned on the same Friday.
Not one earnings miss. Caterpillar posted $8.17 per share against the $6.20 expected, Eli Lilly $8.38 versus $6.31 in the same quarter a year earlier, and SpaceX opened its life as a public company with $7.8bn in revenue where $6.81bn was expected. Palantir and AMD also came in above. Five different sectors and not one soft. Then on Friday payrolls printed -23k when the consensus wanted +83k, after +57k the month before. The key to reading it is not that number but the one beside it: jobless claims stayed at 199k, close to lows. Nobody is firing. What has stopped is hiring, and those are different things — a layoff is a shock, a freeze is a decision, and the second one lasts longer. On Wednesday ADP had already warned with 44k against 75k expected, and it was dismissed as unreliable, which is usually the right call. This time it was not.
- ·Not a single earnings miss, across five different sectors. Caterpillar beat by nearly two dollars a share.
- ·-23k payrolls with jobless claims at 199k is not a wave of layoffs: it is hiring that has stopped.
- ·Wednesday’s ADP warned (44k against 75k) and was dismissed as unreliable. It does correlate poorly — but not always.
- ·Manufacturing ISM at 55.6 says expansion and employment says the opposite. When survey and hard data disagree, the hard data usually ends up right.
All eyes on US employment.
11 releasesMadrid time. New York time in brackets.
The event of the week
US employment report · payrolls, unemployment rate and hourly earnings (July)
Friday 7 August · 14:30 (08:30 NY)
The week’s reference point: it sets the tone for rates and risk until the next Fed meeting.
How to read the colours
- Top impact
- Second-tier macro
- Central banks
- Earnings
- Market plumbing
- (10:00 NY)
ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)
- Actual
- 55,6
- Forecast
- 54,0
- Previous
- 53,3
Source: Institute for Supply Management; consenso vía Trading Economics
What it means and what it affects
A survey of manufacturing purchasing managers on orders, production, employment and prices. Above 50 the sector is expanding; below, contracting.
It is one of the first releases of the month and it is a survey, not a count: it arrives ahead of actual activity and is used as a leading read. Manufacturing is a small share of US GDP, but it turns before the rest of the economy.
If it comes in above
Stronger manufacturing supports cyclicals and commodities, and reinforces the case for an economy that is holding up.
If it comes in below
A weak print, especially below 50 for several months running, feeds the slowdown thesis and usually benefits bonds.
The catch: The prices-paid sub-index often moves more than the headline, because it is an early inflation clue. And the level matters less than the direction: going from 47 to 49 is still contraction, but it is an improvement.
Source: Institute for Supply Management · index, 50 is the threshold
Second-tier macroUS - (17:00 NY)
Palantir Q2 earnings · after the close
It opens the week of tech earnings and tends to move the whole Nasdaq.
- Actual
- 0,41 $
- Forecast
- 0,35 $
- Previous
- 0,16 $
Source: CNBC · BPA ajustado 2T 2026; interanual 2T 2025 (0,16 $) vía Zacks
EarningsUS
Session close
The Dow closed at a record to open August. The session had no macro print to move it — manufacturing ISM came in above forecast at 55.6 — and the spotlight went to a single stock: Amazon closed at $284.02, up 4.58%, crossing three trillion dollars in market cap for the first time on the back of its quarterly results. When a company of that weight rises almost 5%, the index rises with it even if nothing else happens.
Cierre del Dow y de Amazon vía CNBC y Yahoo Finance (3 de agosto de 2026); ISM: Institute for Supply Management
Also that day
Amazon joins the three-trillion club.
It is the fifth to get there, after Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet and Nvidia. What pushed it was not retail but cloud: AWS growth on AI demand. It matters for reading the index — five companies that size drive the S&P 500 more than any macro print on an ordinary day.
Yahoo Finance / CNBC · capitalización de Amazon del 3 de agosto de 2026
- (06:30 NY)
Caterpillar Q2 earnings · before the open
The heavy industry benchmark. What matters is not profit but the order book: nobody buys an excavator on passing optimism, so it sets the tone for the whole sector.
- Actual
- 8,17 $
- Forecast
- 6,20 $
- Previous
- 4,72 $
Source: Caterpillar Inc. · nota de prensa del 2T 2026 (BPA ajustado); consenso vía qz.com
EarningsUS - (16:00 NY)
SpaceX Q2 earnings · first as a public company
The first since its June IPO. It beat revenue by nearly a billion and the stock still fell 7%: capex jumped to $18.37bn, $15.83bn of it in AI. Starlink doubled subscribers to 12 million. A textbook case of guidance and spending mattering more than the headline number.
- Actual
- 7.800 M$ (+92 % interanual)
- Forecast
- 6.810 M$ de ingresos
Source: SpaceX · resultados del 2T 2026; consenso vía Bloomberg
EarningsUS - (17:00 NY)
AMD Q2 earnings · after the close
Data centre guidance is read against Nvidia’s: if both rise, the AI cycle continues; if only one does, it is market share and not growth.
- Actual
- 1,66 $
- Forecast
- 1,62 $
- Previous
- 0,48 $
Source: Advanced Micro Devices · ir.amd.com (resultados del 2T 2026, BPA non-GAAP); consenso vía Zacks
EarningsUS
Session close
A day for the big names: the S&P 500 rose 1.79% to a record 7,736.52, the Nasdaq 2.59% to 26,584.99 and the Dow 907.47 points — 1.71% — to 54,085.88, closing above 54,000 for the first time. Per reports, two things weighed at once: strong corporate earnings and expectations of progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Hold on to that second one, because three days later the same strait moved crude the other way: geopolitics is not priced once, it is repriced every day the headline changes.
Cierres de índices vía CNBC (4 de agosto de 2026)
- (08:15 NY)
ADP private payrolls (July)
Friday’s appetiser. It correlates poorly with the official payrolls, so it moves more than it should.
- Actual
- 44 mil
- Forecast
- 75 mil
- Previous
- 98 mil
Source: ADP Research Institute (empleo privado de julio: +44 mil; junio: +98 mil); consenso Dow Jones de 75 mil vía CNBC
What it means and what it affects
Private-sector jobs created according to the payrolls ADP processes, one of the country’s largest payroll providers.
It comes two days before the official report and is read as its appetiser. It moves markets mainly when it surprises a lot, because it shifts the expectation going into Friday.
If it comes in above
It reinforces the tight-labour-market read ahead of the official print.
If it comes in below
It brings the cooling thesis forward, though with limited reliability.
The catch: It correlates poorly with the official payrolls — it measures something else with a different method. It moves more than it should precisely because many treat it as a reliable preview.
Source: ADP Research Institute · thousands of jobs
Second-tier macroUS - (10:00 NY)
ISM Services PMI (July)
- Actual
- 54,1
- Forecast
- 54,5
- Previous
- 54,0
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM Services PMI de julio: 54,1; junio: 54,0); consenso de 54,5 vía Bloomingbit (Bloomberg)
What it means and what it affects
The same survey as manufacturing, but for services: retail, finance, health, transport, hospitality.
Services are the bulk of the US economy and its employment, so this says more about where the whole is going than the manufacturing print. It is also where inflation has proved stickiest, because wage costs dominate there.
If it comes in above
Strong services sustain consumption and employment, and with them the part of inflation the Fed finds hardest to bring down.
If it comes in below
A cooling here weighs far more than in manufacturing: it is the slowdown signal the market takes seriously.
Source: Institute for Supply Management · index, 50 is the threshold
Second-tier macroUS - (10:00 NY)
Eli Lilly Q2 earnings
The largest healthcare weight. What matters is diabetes and obesity drug sales and whether manufacturing can keep up: demand has never been the constraint.
- Actual
- 8,38 $
- Previous
- 6,31 $
Source: Eli Lilly and Company · investor.lilly.com (resultados del 2T 2026, BPA no-GAAP: 8,38 $; 2T 2025: 6,31 $)
EarningsUS - (10:30 NY)
EIA crude oil inventories
- Actual
- +2,5 M barriles
- Forecast
- -1,5 M barriles
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration · Weekly Petroleum Status Report (semana terminada el 31 de julio: inventarios comerciales de crudo +2,5 M barriles, hasta 407,0 M); consenso de -1,5 M vía Reuters
What it means and what it affects
How much crude is stored in the US and how it changed over the week.
It is oil supply and demand in one weekly number. It moves crude immediately, and through it energy stocks, expected inflation and the sector’s companies.
If it comes in above
More inventory than expected means more supply or less demand: it pushes the price down.
If it comes in below
Less inventory tightens the market and pushes crude up.
Source: Energy Information Administration · million barrels
Market plumbingUS
Session close
A session split in two and instructive for it: the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, the Nasdaq 0.8%, and yet the Dow ROSE 0.5%. Tech gave back part of the previous day’s surge while the rest of the market held. When the indexes move in different directions on the same day it is not that some are wrong: they measure different things — the Nasdaq is loaded with tech and the Dow spreads weight across thirty companies from very different sectors. Watching only one of the three gives an incomplete picture.
Cierres de índices vía The Washington Post · «How major US stock indexes fared Wednesday 8/5/2026»
- (08:30 NY)
Weekly jobless claims
- Actual
- 199 mil
- Forecast
- 203 mil
- Previous
- 197 mil
Source: Department of Labor · Employment and Training Administration (semana terminada el 1 de agosto: 199 mil; previo: 197 mil, semana terminada el 25 de julio); consenso de 203 mil vía Investing.com y de 202 mil vía Reuters
What it means and what it affects
How many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time last week. It is the most frequent labour reading there is.
Its value is the frequency: weekly, so it catches a turn in the labour market weeks before any monthly release. It rarely moves markets on its own; what moves markets is its trend.
If it comes in above
More claims point to a deteriorating labour market and support bonds.
If it comes in below
Fewer claims confirm a labour market that is holding.
The catch: It is noisy week to week. Look at the four-week average, not the single print — and holiday and back-to-school weeks get distorted by seasonal adjustment.
Source: Department of Labor · thousands of claims
Second-tier macroUS
Session close
The Dow fell more than 450 points, ending five straight up sessions, with the S&P 500 also lower. Per reports, the pressure came from crude. It is the exact mirror of Tuesday: that session rose partly on hopes of reopening Hormuz, and this one corrected with oil squeezing. The same variable, two directions, three sessions apart — which is why a five-day winning streak says nothing about the sixth.
CNBC · resumen de la sesión del 6 de agosto de 2026
- (08:30 NY)
US employment report · payrolls, unemployment rate and hourly earnings (July)
The week’s reference point: it sets the tone for rates and risk until the next Fed meeting.
- Actual
- -23 mil
- Forecast
- 83 mil
- Previous
- 57 mil
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · The Employment Situation de julio 2026 (nóminas -23 mil; tasa de paro 4,1 %; salario por hora +3,2 % interanual; junio revisado a +20 mil); consenso Dow Jones de 83 mil vía CNBC
What it means and what it affects
How many jobs were created or lost in the US last month, excluding agriculture. It arrives with the unemployment rate and hourly earnings, and the three are read together.
It is the single biggest market mover of the month, because it touches both halves of the Fed’s mandate at once: employment and inflation. A strong labour market sustains consumption and pushes wages; a cooling one brings rate cuts forward. Everything traded until the next Fed meeting gets recalibrated with this number.
If it comes in above
More jobs than expected usually reads as a strong economy and a Fed in no hurry to cut: the dollar and yields tend to rise. For equities it is ambiguous — good economy, but expensive money for longer.
If it comes in below
Fewer jobs brings rate cuts forward, which tends to lift bonds and weaken the dollar. Equities celebrate it… until the number is so bad it stops meaning “lower rates” and starts meaning “recession”.
The catch: The revision to the previous two months comes in the same release and often matters more than the headline. A good headline with a hundred-thousand downward revision is, in fact, a bad number.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · thousands of jobs
Top impactUS
Session close
A session higher with payrolls negative: the S&P 500 rose 0.6% to a record close, the Nasdaq 1.3%, and the ten-year yield eased to 4.632%. Per reports, traders pulled back bets on a rate hike at the next meeting. And there is a trap in the data worth catching: the unemployment rate FELL from 4.2% to 4.1% on the same day 23,000 jobs were lost. It did not improve because more people were hired, but because participation slid to a more-than-five-year low — when people stop looking, they drop out of the calculation and the percentage improves while the situation does not.
Cierres de índices y bono vía CNBC y NBC News (7 de agosto de 2026); tasa de paro y participación: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Also that day
Iran publishes a draft plan restricting passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
The draft would bar US and Israeli vessels from transiting. Gulf crude leaves through that strait, so the threat gets paid for in the risk premium long before anything happens: October Brent rose 1.25% to $83.52 and September WTI 1.10% to $78.14.
Saxo Bank · Market Quick Take, 7 de agosto de 2026
The US imposes a 15% tariff and price floors on polysilicon.
Polysilicon is the feedstock for both semiconductor wafers and solar panels, so the measure hits two supply chains at once. A tariff on an input shows up nowhere tomorrow: it shows up two or three quarters later in the manufacturer’s margin, which is where you have to go looking for it.
Trading Economics · anuncio de la Administración de EE. UU. bajo la Sección 232
The agenda is generated every Sunday and published as one file per week. It does not come from anyone’s personal calendar.
Take the agenda to your calendar
Subscribe once and every week shows up on its own. No account, no email — and every event appears in YOUR time, wherever you are.
For Outlook and anything else: copy the link and paste it where it says “subscribe from URL”.
Calendars re-read external feeds at their own pace, usually once or twice a day. It is for planning the week, not for a ten-minute warning.
Previous weeks
- Week of 14–20 September 2026Central-bank week: U.S. retail sales, housing and industry arrive around the Federal Reserve and Bank of England decisions, with two auctions testing demand for duration.
- Week of 7–13 September 2026Inflation week: PPI and CPI test whether strong employment can coexist with enough disinflation ahead of the Fed; Oracle gauges real AI-cloud demand.
- Week of 31 August – 6 September 2026Jobs week: the last big labour print before an FOMC now flirting with a hike, and Broadcom sets the AI note.
- Week of 24–30 August 2026PCE and Warsh's Jackson Hole debut set the week; Nvidia provides the counterpoint.
- Week of 17–23 August 2026The FOMC minutes rule a data-light week.
- Week of 10–16 August 2026CPI runs the week: July inflation decides whether Warsh's Fed still has room to move.