Economic calendar

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (September)

The first regional manufacturing reading for September. Above consensus would be consistent with firmer expansion; in line would point to moderation from August; below would signal lost momentum. Activity, orders, employment and prices paid should be read separately: a weaker headline with high costs would be a mixed signal.

U.S. Treasury 20-year bond reopening

Tests duration demand ahead of the Fed decision. Watch the high yield, the difference versus the pre-auction market, bid-to-cover and the split among indirect, direct and dealer awards. A weak reception would be consistent with pressure on the long end; solid demand would invalidate that immediate read. It is not a standalone signal.

U.S. retail sales (August)

The JSON's star event: it measures nominal spending and is released ahead of the Fed decision. Above consensus would be consistent with more resilient consumption; in line would confirm a rebound from July; below would signal greater caution. The control group, sales excluding autos and gasoline, and revisions matter alongside the headline; high energy prices can lift the nominal value.

U.S. import and export prices (August)

Measures prices for internationally traded goods. A reading above the prior figure, especially excluding petroleum, would be consistent with greater imported-price pressure; in line would suggest stability; below would ease that read. Energy, currencies and nonfuel goods should be separated.

U.S. business inventories and sales (July)

Completes the activity picture through the relationship between inventories and sales. Rising inventories alongside firm sales would be consistent with restocking; higher inventories and weak sales would point to unwanted accumulation; a steady reading would preserve the balance. Read it with revisions and sector detail.

Rate decision · Federal Reserve

Rate decision · Bank of England

Weekly jobless claims

The fastest reading on layoffs. Above the prior figure, if continuing claims also rise, would be consistent with labour-market cooling; in line would preserve the signal of low separations; below would reinforce that stability. Revisions and the four-week average matter more than one observation.

U.S. housing starts and building permits (August)

Measures construction starts and forward authorisations. Above the prior figures in both components would be consistent with a supply recovery; divergence would leave a mixed read; below would point to persistent weakness. Volatile multifamily data make single-family activity and revisions essential.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (September)

The week's second major regional survey. A joint improvement in activity and new orders would be consistent with stronger manufacturing momentum; stability would leave the signal open; deterioration would point to weakness. Prices paid and received can change the headline's interpretation.

U.S. Treasury 10-year TIPS reopening

Tests demand for real inflation protection. Watch the real stop-out yield, bid-to-cover and indirect participation. Weak demand would be consistent with pressure on real yields; a strong reception would invalidate that immediate read. Comparing it with nominals helps separate inflation expectations from the real rate.

U.S. industrial production and capacity utilisation (August)

Measures output in manufacturing, mining and utilities. Above the prior figure alongside higher utilisation would be consistent with firm activity; in line would suggest continuity; below would signal lost momentum. Manufacturing should be separated from energy, with attention to revisions announced by the Fed.

Quarterly expiration · quadruple witching

Index futures, index options, stock options and single-stock futures all expire together. It is the highest-volume day of the quarter and the one that removes the most gamma from the market at once.