The week ahead
Economic calendar
Week of 10–16 August 2026
How the week went
Inflation behaved, companies beat, and the consumer broke on Friday.
Three calm days and a bad Friday. CPI landed exactly at 3.4% and PPI was flat, so inflation gave no scare; Applied Materials posted a record quarter at $3.50 against $3.36 expected with guidance higher, and CoreWeave beat too. Then Friday brought both consumer readings at once: retail sales at -0.6% when +0.5% was expected — over a point of miss in the number that directly measures what people spend — and Michigan confidence collapsing to 51.0 from 54.1 expected. Read alongside the previous week, the order makes sense: hiring stopped first, spending second. Jobless claims rising to 209,000, breaking three weeks below 200,000, fit the same sequence. And yet the three indexes closed their third consecutive week higher. The market is pricing the rate path — a September hike receding — more than the economy underneath it.
- ·Retail sales at -0.6% against +0.5% expected: over a point of miss in the number that measures what people actually spend.
- ·Michigan confidence at 51.0 against 54.1. Two consumer readings on the same day, both bad — that is no longer noise in one series.
- ·The sequence reads clearly against the prior week: hiring stopped first, now spending. Weekly claims rising to 209,000 is the third link.
- ·And still, a third straight week higher. The market is pricing the rate path, not the economy underneath — and that only holds while bad data keeps meaning “no hike”.
CPI runs the week: July inflation decides whether Warsh's Fed still has room to move.
7 releasesMadrid time. New York time in brackets.
The event of the week
US CPI (July)
Wednesday 12 August · 14:30 (08:30 NY)
The number of the week. Core matters more than headline: it sets how much cutting room the Fed has left.
How to read the colours
- Top impact
- Second-tier macro
- Central banks
- Earnings
- Market plumbing
- (17:00 NY)
CoreWeave earnings (Q2 2026)
After the close (AMC). The gauge of real AI compute demand: it reprices the entire rented-cloud complex.
- Actual
- -1,14 $
- Forecast
- -1,17 $
- Previous
- -0,60 $
Source: CoreWeave, Inc. · nota de resultados del 2T 2026 (pérdida neta por acción GAAP diluida: -1,14 $; pérdida neta 626 M$; ingresos 2.575 M$) vía investors.coreweave.com; 2T 2025 GAAP -0,60 $; consenso -1,17 $ (Zacks) vía Yahoo Finance
EarningsUS
Also that day
CoreWeave doubles revenue and narrows losses in its second quarter.
It posted $2.58bn in revenue, up 112% year on year and ahead of the $2.56bn expected, with adjusted operating margin at 5%. It is one of the companies that BUYS Nvidia’s cards, so its billings are the demand of the link above before that link reports it. Two days later Nebius said the same, and Nvidia reports on the 26th.
CNBC · resultados del 2T 2026 de CoreWeave (publicados tras el cierre del 11 de agosto)
- (08:30 NY)
US CPI (July)
The number of the week. Core matters more than headline: it sets how much cutting room the Fed has left.
- Actual
- 3,4 %
- Forecast
- 3,4 %
- Previous
- 3,5 %
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · IPC de julio 2026 publicado el 12 de agosto (general +3,4 % interanual, +0,1 % mensual; subyacente +2,5 % interanual, +0,2 % mensual); junio 2026 general 3,5 %; archivo bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08122026.htm
What it means and what it affects
How much the price of a basket of goods and services has risen. Two versions are published: headline and core, which strips out food and energy as the most volatile items.
It is the number that sets the price of money. The Fed has an explicit inflation target, so every tenth above or below moves rate expectations, and with them the valuation of absolutely everything: bonds, equities, currencies and credit.
If it comes in above
Inflation above forecast delays rate cuts. Yields and the dollar tend to rise, while equities suffer — especially anything valued on future earnings, like technology — along with long bonds.
If it comes in below
Softer inflation opens the door to earlier cuts: relief for bonds and equities, and pressure on the dollar.
The catch: The market reacts to the monthly CORE reading, not to the year-on-year headline the press quotes. A year-on-year figure falling only because it rose a lot a year ago is not fresh disinflation.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · % year-on-year and monthly
Top impactUS
Session close
CPI landed exactly on consensus: 3.4% annual, a tenth below June, with core at 2.5%. The session closed higher without enthusiasm — S&P 500 +0.25% to 7,747.46, Nasdaq +0.59%, Dow +0.11% — and so did bonds, the two-year easing four basis points to 4.17% and the ten-year to 4.65%. What matters today is not the number but what it did NOT settle: per reports, bets on a September rate hike went from a 50-50 split the day before to around 40%. They are still there. A number that merely meets expectations does not close a debate, it postpones it — which is why an in-line CPI moves so little: it hands ammunition to neither side.
Cierres de índices y bonos vía CNBC, TheStreet y Bloomberg (12 de agosto de 2026); IPC: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Also that day
Nebius jumps 16.5% as its AI cloud revenue rises nearly sixfold.
It posted $582.3m in its core AI cloud business in the second quarter. What matters is where it sits in the chain: it is the second read on the same business in two days — CoreWeave reported yesterday — and these are the companies that BUY the cards. What they bill today is the demand Nvidia will report in a few weeks, so the middle link tends to signal before the top one does.
Bloomberg · resultados del 2T 2026 de Nebius Group
- (08:30 NY)
US PPI (July)
Producer prices: inflation that hasn't reached the consumer yet. It confirms or contradicts the prior day's CPI.
- Actual
- 0,0 %
- Forecast
- -0,1 %
- Previous
- -0,3 %
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · IPP de demanda final de julio 2026 publicado el 13 de agosto (sin variación mensual desestacionalizada; bienes finales -0,7 %, servicios finales +0,2 %; +4,7 % interanual sin ajustar); junio 2026 -0,3 % mensual; consenso de julio -0,1 % mensual vía Trading Economics · archivo bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_08132026.htm
Second-tier macroUS - (08:30 NY)
Weekly jobless claims
The most frequent read on the labour market. It only moves the tape on a real surprise.
- Actual
- 209 mil
- Forecast
- 202 mil
- Previous
- 199 mil
Source: Department of Labor · Employment and Training Administration (peticiones iniciales desestacionalizadas de la semana terminada el 8 de agosto: 209 mil, +9 mil sobre las 200 mil revisadas de la semana previa; publicado el 13 de agosto); consenso 202 mil (Reuters) vía Yahoo Finance
What it means and what it affects
How many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time last week. It is the most frequent labour reading there is.
Its value is the frequency: weekly, so it catches a turn in the labour market weeks before any monthly release. It rarely moves markets on its own; what moves markets is its trend.
If it comes in above
More claims point to a deteriorating labour market and support bonds.
If it comes in below
Fewer claims confirm a labour market that is holding.
The catch: It is noisy week to week. Look at the four-week average, not the single print — and holiday and back-to-school weeks get distorted by seasonal adjustment.
Source: Department of Labor · thousands of claims
Second-tier macroUS - (16:30 NY)
Applied Materials earnings (fiscal Q3 2026)
After the close (AMC). It builds the machines that make the chips: its order book reprices all of chip equipment.
- Actual
- 3,50 $
- Forecast
- 3,36 $
- Previous
- 2,48 $
Source: Applied Materials · resultados del 3T fiscal 2026 (ir.appliedmaterials.com); BPA no GAAP, récord de la compañía; ingresos 9.120 M$, +24,8 % interanual
EarningsUS
Session close
A second inflation print in two days and again no shock: PPI was flat on the month, with core at +0.4%. The S&P 500 closed at a record — +0.65% to 7,798.99, after clearing 7,800 intraday for the first time — the Nasdaq rose 0.81% to 26,803.03 and the Dow 0.13%. Bonds kept easing: the ten-year down a basis point to 4.678% and the two-year a little more, to 4.17%. Per reports, expectations of a September rate hike stepped down again. Worth watching the weekly claims number, which rose to 209,000 from a revised 200,000. It is still low historically, but it breaks three straight weeks below 200,000 — and last Friday’s employment report already said that what has stopped is hiring, not that layoffs have begun. The figure that would confirm a change is precisely this one, week by week.
Cierres de índices y bonos vía CNBC (13 de agosto de 2026); IPP: Bureau of Labor Statistics; peticiones de paro: Department of Labor
Also that day
Crude falls more than 2% with the US-Iran war still open.
Brent settled at $87.07 and WTI at $81.25, with traders weighing falling demand. It is the lesson of the month in a single chart: on 7 August this same crude ROSE on an Iranian draft plan for the Strait of Hormuz, and six days later it falls with the conflict still open. A risk premium is not permanent — it gets paid when supply fear dominates, and it unwinds as soon as demand fear weighs more.
CNBC · cierres de Brent y WTI del 13 de agosto de 2026
Cisco falls 6-7% after record sales of $17.3bn.
It sold more than ever and the stock sank, because margin narrowed. It is the same pattern as SpaceX last week by a different route: there it beat on revenue and fell on capex, here it beats on sales and falls on what it keeps from each sale. The headline number is almost never the one that moves the price.
Recogido en el resumen de mercado del 13 de agosto de 2026 (Blockonomi); resultados trimestrales de Cisco Systems
- (08:30 NY)
US retail sales (July)
The consumer is two-thirds of GDP. The control group is what the market actually watches, not the headline.
- Actual
- -0,6 %
- Forecast
- 0,5 %
- Previous
- 0,2 %
Source: U.S. Census Bureau · Advance Monthly Retail Trade — ventas minoristas de julio 2026 publicadas el 14 de agosto: -0,6 % mensual (763.600 M$; +5,0 % interanual); junio 2026 +0,2 % mensual; consenso de julio +0,5 % mensual vía Trading Economics
What it means and what it affects
How much consumers spent in shops last month. A control version strips out cars, petrol and building materials, and that is the one that feeds GDP.
Consumption is close to two thirds of the US economy. If the consumer holds, recession gets postponed; if the consumer gives up, no other data compensates.
If it comes in above
Strong consumption supports equities and pushes cuts further out.
If it comes in below
A consumer slowing down is the most closely watched recession signal.
The catch: The figure is nominal: it does not strip out inflation. A month of “rising” sales with prices rising faster can be a real fall in consumption.
Source: Census Bureau · % monthly
Second-tier macroUS - (10:00 NY)
Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary, August)
It matters for the inflation expectations embedded in it, not for the respondent's mood.
- Actual
- 51,0
- Forecast
- 54,1
- Previous
- 55,2
Source: University of Michigan · Surveys of Consumers — sentimiento preliminar de agosto 2026 publicado el 14 de agosto: 51,0 (por debajo del consenso ~54,5 y del 55,2 final de julio; condiciones actuales 51,8, expectativas 50,6); expectativas de inflación a un año +4,3 % (desde +4,2 %) y a cinco años 3,3 %; sca.isr.umich.edu
What it means and what it affects
How households rate their current situation and the months ahead, by survey.
It leads consumption: what people say today about their future anticipates what they will spend. The Michigan survey also includes expected inflation, which the Fed watches because expectations feed on themselves.
If it comes in above
More optimistic households point to sustained consumption.
If it comes in below
A collapse in confidence usually precedes a spending stop.
The catch: What people say and what they do often diverge. Confidence can be on the floor while spending stays firm for months.
Source: Conference Board · University of Michigan · index
Second-tier macroUS
Session close
The S&P 500 eased off yesterday's record with a small drop — -0.17% to 7,785.76 — and so did the Nasdaq, about 0.3% lower toward 26,729, and the Dow, 0.2% to around 53,732; even so all three close a third straight week higher and the small-cap Russell 2000 set a record. The ten-year kept easing, toward 4.65%. The trap is how little the market moved on a day the consumer genuinely blinked: retail sales fell 0.6%, the biggest drop in fourteen months, and Michigan sentiment sank to 51 from 55.2. Consumer data that weak usually pushes bets toward rate cuts, and stocks tend to cheer that. They barely cheered, and the reason sits inside the same survey: one-year inflation expectations ROSE to 4.3%. A weak consumer buys the rate-cut bailout; it stops buying it when the very inflation gauge in the report moves the other way. And the drag came not from the consumer but from tech — per Reuters, Broadcom was the index's biggest weight, down more than 5% — while energy rose 1.5% and small caps hit highs: a rotation, not a flight.
Cierres de índices y bonos vía Kiplinger, Reuters (MarketScreener) y Detroit News/AP (14 de agosto de 2026); ventas minoristas: U.S. Census Bureau; confianza y expectativas de inflación: University of Michigan
Also that day
Reddit jumps around 14% as it joins the S&P 500.
S&P Dow Jones Indices said Reddit joins the index before the open on August 18, taking the slot AvalonBay vacates as it is acquired. It is not a verdict on the business: it is mechanical, dated demand. Every fund tracking the S&P 500 — trillions in passive money — must buy the stock to avoid drifting from the index, which is why the pop comes on the ANNOUNCEMENT day, not the inclusion day: traders front-run an order they already know is coming. The push is one-off and structural, not a re-rating that fundamentals hold up.
S&P Dow Jones Indices vía Forbes, Morningstar (Business Wire) y CNBC (14 de agosto de 2026)
Crude holds its drop as talks continue to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent trades near $87 and WTI near $81 after yesterday's slump, with Iran and Oman still without a deal to reopen the passage and fresh attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure in the background. It is the third day running this agenda watches the same thing, and not out of habit: a huge share of the world's crude passes through Hormuz, so these days the price is set not by demand but by the odds that the tap gets shut. While the uncertainty lasts, the energy sector — today the only one to rise meaningfully, up 1.5% — moves on Gulf headlines, not on balance sheets. A deal to reopen the strait would strip out the risk premium at once; its breakdown would spike it.
Bloomberg · seguimiento del mercado de crudo del 14 de agosto de 2026
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Previous weeks
- Week of 7–13 September 2026Inflation week: PPI and CPI test whether strong employment can coexist with enough disinflation ahead of the Fed; Oracle gauges real AI-cloud demand.
- Week of 31 August – 6 September 2026Jobs week: the last big labour print before an FOMC now flirting with a hike, and Broadcom sets the AI note.
- Week of 24–30 August 2026PCE and Warsh's Jackson Hole debut set the week; Nvidia provides the counterpoint.
- Week of 17–23 August 2026The FOMC minutes rule a data-light week.
- Week of 3–9 August 2026All eyes on US employment.