The week ahead
Economic calendar
Week of 7–13 September 2026
Last weekEmployment rebounded, services held firm and cost pressure remained uncomfortable.
Read the wrap-upInflation week: PPI and CPI test whether strong employment can coexist with enough disinflation ahead of the Fed; Oracle gauges real AI-cloud demand.
9 releasesMadrid time. New York time in brackets.
The event of the week
Consumer Price Index (August)
Friday 11 September · 14:30 (08:30 NY)
The star event. Above consensus, especially in core services, would be less consistent with disinflation ahead of the Fed; in line would leave the debate open; below would reinforce moderation, provided it is not driven only by energy. Watch shelter, services, goods and revisions, not just the headline.
How to read the colours
- Top impact
- Second-tier macro
- Central banks
- Earnings
- Market plumbing
- (09:30 NY)
Market closed · Labor Day
No US session. Futures usually trade on a shortened schedule and with very little depth.
Source: NYSE · CME Group (calendario de festivos)
What it means and what it affects
A US market holiday. The exchange does not open and futures trade on a shortened schedule.
With no session there is no volume, and without volume levels mean nothing. Whatever moves in futures that day is moved by a handful of orders, so a range broken on a holiday is not a break: it is a lack of counterparty. The next session also tends to gap open, because the holiday’s news gets priced in all at once.
If it comes in above
There is no figure and no surprise. The only decision is not to trade, or to do it knowing the book is empty.
If it comes in below
Same. The expensive mistake on a holiday is treating it as a normal day with low volume rather than what it is: a different market.
Source: NYSE · CME Group · full day
Market plumbingUS
Also that day
Wall Street remained closed for Labor Day
Nasdaq confirmed that U.S. equity and options markets were closed on 7 September. Therefore, there is no official S&P 500, Dow or Nasdaq close for this date; the next regular session is Tuesday.
Nasdaq Trader — U.S. Equity and Options Markets Holiday Schedule 2026
Brent reached a six-week high
Reuters reported that Brent settled at $97.31 a barrel (+1.1%) after touching $98.06, its highest intraday level since 24 July. WTI had no official settlement because of the holiday and was trading at $92.65 (+1.3%) at 1:45 p.m. New York time. The move provides context for inflation and transport costs without constituting a signal.
Reuters — 7 de septiembre de 2026
- (11:00 NY)
New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (August)
Tracks household expectations for inflation, employment and finances. Above the prior inflation reading —especially at one year— would be less comfortable for the Fed; in line would suggest stability; below would ease the read, provided CPI confirms it.
- Actual
- Inflación esperada: 3,6 % a 1 año · 3,2 % a 3 años · 3,0 % a 5 años (agosto de 2026) · probabilidad de mayor desempleo en un año: 44,4 %
- Previous
- Inflación esperada: 3,6 % a 1 año · 3,3 % a 3 años · 3,0 % a 5 años (julio de 2026)
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York — Survey of Consumer Expectations, agosto de 2026 (8 de septiembre de 2026): https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260908
Second-tier macroUS - (13:00 NY)
U.S. Treasury 3-year note auction
The first of the week's three coupon auctions. Watch the stop-out yield, the difference versus the pre-auction market, indirect demand and bid-to-cover. A weak reception can add pressure to the front end of the curve; solid demand would point the other way.
- Actual
- Rentabilidad máxima 4,474 % · bid-to-cover 2,72 · indirectos 62,1 % · directos 26,9 % · dealers 10,9 % · adjudicado 58.000,1 M$ (8 de septiembre de 2026)
- Previous
- Rentabilidad máxima 4,291 % · bid-to-cover 2,70 · indirectos 64,2 % · directos 24,0 % · dealers 11,7 % (11 de agosto de 2026)
Source: U.S. Treasury — resultados oficiales del 8 de septiembre de 2026 y del 11 de agosto de 2026: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2026/R_20260908_3.pdf · https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2026/R_20260811_2.pdf
Market plumbingUS
Session close
The S&P 500 closed at 7,673.52 (-0.58%), the Nasdaq Composite at 26,421.41 (-0.32%) and the Dow Jones at 52,786.07 (-1.18%). Reuters described a session with weakness in software, gains in some chipmakers and firmer energy shares; U.S. volume reached 15.7 billion shares versus a 14.9 billion average over the previous 20 sessions.
Reuters — 8 de septiembre de 2026: https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-slip-oil-surge-puts-markets-edge-2026-09-08/
Also that day
Software shares extended their declines
Salesforce and Intuit fell about 4% and ServiceNow lost 5%. Reuters reported that the launch of GPT-6 Astra revived investor concern about greater AI competition for specialised software providers.
Reuters — 8 de septiembre de 2026: https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-slip-oil-surge-puts-markets-edge-2026-09-08/
Intel and Qualcomm gained after announcing an Amazon deal
Reuters reported that Intel rose 9% and Qualcomm 3.2% after striking a deal with Amazon to develop custom AI chips. The divergence from software shows that the technology session was not uniform.
Reuters — 8 de septiembre de 2026: https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-slip-oil-surge-puts-markets-edge-2026-09-08/
Oil touched a six-week high and energy gained 1%
Reuters reported that oil reached a six-week high during the session and that the S&P 500 energy index gained 1%. The move provides context for the coming inflation releases without constituting a standalone signal.
Reuters — 8 de septiembre de 2026: https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-slip-oil-surge-puts-markets-edge-2026-09-08/
Bitcoin retreated from $80,000 and crypto-linked shares fell
Reuters noted that Bitcoin retreated from $80,000; Coinbase lost 3.1% and Strategy fell 4.4%. This is an observed reaction in risk-sensitive assets, not a causal attribution to any single data point.
Reuters — 8 de septiembre de 2026: https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-slip-oil-surge-puts-markets-edge-2026-09-08/
- (13:00 NY)
10-year Treasury reopening
Tests demand for duration ahead of CPI. A tail and lower indirect participation would be consistent with upward pressure on the ten-year yield; a strong auction would invalidate that immediate reading. It is not a standalone signal.
Market plumbingUS
- (08:15 NY)
Rate decision · European Central Bank
Source: European Central Bank · ecb.europa.eu
What it means and what it affects
Where the European Central Bank leaves its rates, and what it says about what comes next. Four times a year it also brings the Eurosystem’s growth and inflation projections.
It sets the price of money in euros: mortgages, credit and the euro against the dollar. And it counts for anyone trading US indices too, because the rate gap between the two areas drives the exchange rate, and the exchange rate drives the earnings of companies selling on both sides.
If it comes in above
A more hawkish tone than expected tends to strengthen the euro and weigh on European equities.
If it comes in below
A softer one weakens the euro and relieves the area’s equities and bonds.
The catch: The decision lands at 14:15 and the press conference starts at 14:45, right into the US open. The 14:15 move frequently reverses half an hour later.
Source: European Central Bank · % deposit rate
Central banksEU - (08:30 NY)
Producer Price Index (August)
The week's first inflation test. Above consensus, especially in services and the core measure excluding food and energy, would reinforce cost pressure; in line would keep attention on CPI; below would ease that pressure, although oil can distort the headline.
- Forecast
- 0,4 % mensual · 0,3 % subyacente mensual · 5,3 % interanual
- Previous
- 0,0 % mensual · 0,2 % subyacente mensual · 4,7 % interanual
not out yetSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; consenso vía MarketWatch/Dow Jones
Second-tier macroUS - (08:30 NY)
Weekly jobless claims
Checks whether the payroll rebound coexists with still-contained layoffs. Above consensus would suggest somewhat more cooling; in line would keep the read stable; below would reinforce labour resilience. Interpret it alongside continuing claims and revisions.
- Forecast
- 208 mil
- Previous
- 206 mil
not out yetSource: U.S. Department of Labor; consenso vía MarketWatch/Dow Jones
What it means and what it affects
How many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time last week. It is the most frequent labour reading there is.
Its value is the frequency: weekly, so it catches a turn in the labour market weeks before any monthly release. It rarely moves markets on its own; what moves markets is its trend.
If it comes in above
More claims point to a deteriorating labour market and support bonds.
If it comes in below
Fewer claims confirm a labour market that is holding.
The catch: It is noisy week to week. Look at the four-week average, not the single print — and holiday and back-to-school weeks get distorted by seasonal adjustment.
Source: Department of Labor · thousands of claims
Second-tier macroUS - (09:30 NY)
Index futures roll
Liquidity migrates to next quarter’s contract. From today the volume is in the new one, and staying in the old is trading a contract that is emptying out.
Source: CME Group · Cboe (calendario de vencimientos)
What it means and what it affects
On the Thursday eight days before quarterly expiration, liquidity migrates from the expiring contract to next quarter’s. Nobody decides it: it is the convention the market moves by.
From that day, the volume and the good spread are in the new contract. Anyone still trading the old one is trading a market that is emptying out: worse fills, more slippage, and levels that stop holding because nobody is there any more.
If it comes in above
Not applicable: it is a date, not a figure. The only thing to do is switch contracts.
If it comes in below
Nor here. The expensive mistake is not misreading it, it is not noticing.
The catch: Historical charts are usually stitched with an adjustment, so levels from before the roll do not line up with the new contract’s prices. A support drawn on the old contract is not where it looks.
Source: CME Group · a date, not a figure
Market plumbingUS - (13:00 NY)
30-year Treasury bond reopening
The week's most duration-sensitive demand test. A tail, weaker indirect demand or a soft bid-to-cover would be consistent with pressure on the long end; a strong reception would ease that read. It should be separated from the simultaneous PPI effect.
Market plumbingUS - (17:00 NY)
Oracle earnings (fiscal Q1) · after the close
Oracle reports after the close and holds its call at 5:00 p.m. New York time. Focus is on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure growth, remaining performance obligations, margins and guidance: together they show how much AI-cloud demand is contracted and when it may turn into revenue. No consensus is published without a verifiable financial source.
EarningsUS
- (08:30 NY)
Consumer Price Index (August)
The star event. Above consensus, especially in core services, would be less consistent with disinflation ahead of the Fed; in line would leave the debate open; below would reinforce moderation, provided it is not driven only by energy. Watch shelter, services, goods and revisions, not just the headline.
- Forecast
- 0,4 % mensual · 3,4 % interanual · subyacente 0,2 % mensual y 2,4 % interanual
- Previous
- 0,1 % mensual · 3,4 % interanual · subyacente 0,2 % mensual y 2,5 % interanual
not out yetSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; consenso vía MarketWatch/Dow Jones y Reuters
What it means and what it affects
How much the price of a basket of goods and services has risen. Two versions are published: headline and core, which strips out food and energy as the most volatile items.
It is the number that sets the price of money. The Fed has an explicit inflation target, so every tenth above or below moves rate expectations, and with them the valuation of absolutely everything: bonds, equities, currencies and credit.
If it comes in above
Inflation above forecast delays rate cuts. Yields and the dollar tend to rise, while equities suffer — especially anything valued on future earnings, like technology — along with long bonds.
If it comes in below
Softer inflation opens the door to earlier cuts: relief for bonds and equities, and pressure on the dollar.
The catch: The market reacts to the monthly CORE reading, not to the year-on-year headline the press quotes. A year-on-year figure falling only because it rose a lot a year ago is not fresh disinflation.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · % year-on-year and monthly
Top impactUS - (10:00 NY)
University of Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary (September)
The preliminary release includes one- and five-year inflation expectations. Above-consensus sentiment would be consistent with more resilient consumption; in line would indicate stabilisation; below would point to greater caution. If inflation expectations rise, that detail may matter more than the headline index.
- Forecast
- 52,3
- Previous
- 51,7
not out yetSource: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; consenso vía MarketWatch/Dow Jones
Second-tier macroUS
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Previous weeks
- Week of 31 August – 6 September 2026Jobs week: the last big labour print before an FOMC now flirting with a hike, and Broadcom sets the AI note.
- Week of 24–30 August 2026PCE and Warsh's Jackson Hole debut set the week; Nvidia provides the counterpoint.
- Week of 17–23 August 2026The FOMC minutes rule a data-light week.
- Week of 10–16 August 2026CPI runs the week: July inflation decides whether Warsh's Fed still has room to move.
- Week of 3–9 August 2026All eyes on US employment.