The week ahead
Economic calendar
Week of 24–30 August 2026
How the week went
Prices that will not ease over an economy cooling at the edges: the worst mix for Warsh's Fed.
The week's data only make sense read together, and together they trace a pincer. On the price side, nothing eases: the core PCE the Fed watches stayed nailed at 3.3%, the headline even reheated to 3.7%, and Michigan's one-year inflation expectations remain anchored at 4.0%. On the activity side, though, cracks are showing: Q2 GDP was revised to a poor 1.5%, new home sales fell to 607,000 —the lowest since January— and consumer expectations sank to 68.2, even as the assessment of the present rose. Employment is not breaking, it is freezing: jobless claims at 203,000 say nobody is firing yet, but not firing is not hiring. And through it all, a single engine stays red-hot: Nvidia beat and guided the quarter to about $108bn, the AI-spending cycle accelerating while almost everything rate-sensitive slows. Sticky inflation on top of cooling demand is exactly the dilemma with no good exit for a central bank, and it is what has moved the debate from 'when do they cut' to 'they might hike'.
- ·Inflation is not finishing the job: core PCE nailed at 3.3%, headline reheated to 3.7% and Michigan one-year expectations anchored at 4.0%.
- ·The real economy is cooling at the edges: Q2 GDP a weak 1.5%, new home sales at their lowest since January (607,000) and consumer expectations sunk to 68.2.
- ·Employment is not breaking, it is freezing: jobless claims at 203,000 confirm nobody is firing yet — but not firing is not hiring.
- ·A single engine stays red-hot: Nvidia beat with $2.22 EPS and guided the quarter to about $108bn, AI spending accelerating while the rest slows.
PCE and Warsh's Jackson Hole debut set the week; Nvidia provides the counterpoint.
9 releasesMadrid time. New York time in brackets.
The event of the week
Kevin Warsh's first speech as Fed Chair at Jackson Hole
Friday 28 August · 16:00 (10:00 NY)
The set-piece of the week. His debut as chair, with the committee split by three dissenters who wanted a hike and the long bond at a 20-year high. It brings no decision: it sets the frame through which the Fed will be read until the September meeting. The symposium runs from 27 to 29 August.
How to read the colours
- Top impact
- Second-tier macro
- Central banks
- Earnings
- Market plumbing
Session close
A split session. The Dow rose 0.26% to 53,417.16 while the Nasdaq fell 0.76% to 25,980.19 and the S&P 500 slipped 0.28% to 7,652.86. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.7%, a move that on other days lifts tech; this time the tech index fell anyway, with the decline concentrated in semiconductors. Memory chips were hit hardest —Micron, SanDisk and Western Digital lost more than 5%— and Nvidia fell close to 3%, two days before it reports earnings.
Yahoo Finance y CNBC (cierre del 24 de agosto de 2026)
Also that day
Nvidia tells some customers it will raise AI-server prices by more than 15% on memory costs; Apple explores Chinese memory suppliers
Memory prices are creeping into the cost of building a data centre. If Nvidia passes a 15% increase onto its servers, it is not the one absorbing it: the hyperscalers that promised AI spending pay it, and it shows up in their margins one or two quarters later, not tomorrow. It lands two days before Nvidia itself reports, just when the focus is on its spending guidance.
Yahoo Finance (mercado del 24 de agosto de 2026)
US Treasury launches 'Operation Economic Outcast', sanctions threatening to cut off from the dollar system anyone trading with Iran
The threat is not to Iran directly but to its buyers: cutting those buyers out of the dollar system pushes importers of Iranian crude to look elsewhere. The market effect is on energy —oil fell more than a dollar ahead of the announcement— and the chain that matters is Middle East supply, which would take weeks to show up if it is genuinely cut.
NPR (24 de agosto de 2026)
Trump threatens 50% tariffs on Canadian cars, auto parts and steel from 1 January 2027; Carney suspends talks
A tariff on parts and steel does not show up at the dealership tomorrow: it shows up in the carmaker's margin two quarters later, when the pricier input reaches the finished model. The date —January 2027— makes it a forward margin risk rather than an immediate hit; Ford fell close to 3% and GM more than 1% on the news.
Yahoo Finance (mercado del 24 de agosto de 2026)
- (10:00 NY)
Consumer Confidence (Conference Board, August)
The mood gauge before it turns into spending. With gas prices high and Walmart flagging customers trimming outlays last week, you read it for whether confidence is cracking where it matters most: labour expectations.
- Actual
- 89,4
- Forecast
- 90,2
- Previous
- 90,8
Source: The Conference Board; consenso vía Reuters/Investing.com
What it means and what it affects
How households rate their current situation and the months ahead, by survey.
It leads consumption: what people say today about their future anticipates what they will spend. The Michigan survey also includes expected inflation, which the Fed watches because expectations feed on themselves.
If it comes in above
More optimistic households point to sustained consumption.
If it comes in below
A collapse in confidence usually precedes a spending stop.
The catch: What people say and what they do often diverge. Confidence can be on the floor while spending stays firm for months.
Source: Conference Board · University of Michigan · index
Second-tier macroUS - (10:00 NY)
New home sales (July)
New construction, the housing segment that gauges mortgage rates in real time. After last week's 12.4% collapse in housing starts, it says whether demand for new homes is holding up or pulling back with the long bond at a 20-year high.
- Actual
- 607 mil
- Forecast
- 620 mil
- Previous
- 628 mil
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; consenso vía Trading Economics
Second-tier macroUS
Session close
A modestly higher, tech-led session on the eve of Nvidia's earnings. The Nasdaq rose 0.66% to 26,151.30, the S&P 500 0.32% to 7,677.28 and the Dow 0.30% to 53,577.40. Nvidia gained close to 2% and snapped a seven-day losing streak. The 10-year Treasury yield eased six basis points to 4.63% and the 30-year to 5.17%. The trap of the day was in consumer confidence: the headline fell to a seven-month low (89.4), but the entire drop came from expectations for the future —which sank 5.8 points to 68.2— while the assessment of the present situation actually ROSE 6.8 points to 121.2. How people feel today improved; what they fear about tomorrow worsened. New home sales came in at 607,000 (annual rate), the lowest since January.
Yahoo Finance (cierre del 25 de agosto de 2026); The Conference Board; U.S. Census Bureau
Also that day
Canada answers the tariff threat with retaliation on about $20bn of US goods (15% to 50%), effective 8 September; crude oil left out
It is the other half of the dispute Trump's threat opened yesterday: whoever manufactures in the US and sells to Canada faces a pricier market from 8 September, and that margin hit shows up quarter by quarter in the exporter, not immediately. The key is what Canada leaves out: crude oil is excluded, so energy is spared for now and the effect concentrates in manufacturing and agri-food. An escalation of cross-tariffs raises the cost of whole supply chains on both sides of the border before it reaches the consumer.
Yahoo Finance (mercado del 25 de agosto de 2026)
- (08:30 NY)
PCE price index and personal spending (July)
The inflation print the Fed actually watches, not CPI. With three dissenters pushing for a hike and the 30-year bond at a near-20-year high, a core PCE that refuses to ease hands the hawks their case — and reprices everything earned out in time at once.
- Actual
- 3,3 %
- Forecast
- 3,3 %
- Previous
- 3,3 %
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; consenso subyacente interanual vía TradingKey
What it means and what it affects
Inflation measured through personal consumption expenditure, excluding food and energy. A different basket and method from CPI.
It is the inflation measure the Fed says it targets, so it carries more weight than its press coverage suggests. It comes after CPI, by which point the market has already estimated it — which is why it moves less, except when it deviates from that estimate.
If it comes in above
It delays cuts with more authority than CPI, because it is the one the Fed watches.
If it comes in below
It confirms disinflation on the measure that actually counts for the decision.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis · % year-on-year and monthly
Top impactUS - (08:30 NY)
Q2 GDP (second estimate)
A revision of Q2 growth. The headline rarely surprises, but this time the number that counts is the consumer breakdown: it is where you would see spending slow before any monthly data says so.
- Actual
- 1,5 %
- Forecast
- 1,5 %
- Previous
- 1,5 %
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; consenso sin cambios vía Trading Economics
What it means and what it affects
How much the economy grew in the quarter, annualised. Published in three versions —advance, second and final— a month apart.
It is the most complete picture of the economy and also the latest: by the time it lands, the quarter ended weeks ago. It moves mainly when it contradicts what the monthly data had been saying.
If it comes in above
A stronger economy than thought: less urgency to cut.
If it comes in below
It reinforces the slowdown thesis and brings cuts forward.
The catch: The first version gets heavily revised. And the headline can mislead: GDP propped up by inventory build is weaker than it looks.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis · % annualised
Top impactUS - (08:30 NY)
Durable goods orders (July)
Business investment in equipment built to last years. The headline is aircraft noise; the number to read is core orders excluding defence and transport — that is where you see whether companies keep spending or hold back.
- Actual
- 1,1 %
- Forecast
- 0,7 %
- Previous
- 0,3 %
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; consenso vía FXBlue
Second-tier macroUS - (16:20 NY)
Nvidia earnings (fiscal Q2) · after the close
The result of the week for the Nasdaq. You do not read the profit, you read next quarter's guidance: that number reprices the entire AI cycle at once — semiconductors, utilities and anyone who promised data-centre spending. With the sector already bruised by the long bond, the bar is high and the room to disappoint is thin.
- Actual
- 2,22 $
- Forecast
- 2,09 $
- Previous
- 1,05 $
Source: NVIDIA (nota de resultados del 2T fiscal 2027, 26 de agosto de 2026); consenso de analistas (AlphaStreet) para el previsto; BPA ajustado del 2T fiscal 2026 para el previo
EarningsUS
Session close
A holding session, flat with a slight downward tilt, the whole market waiting on Nvidia after the close. The S&P 500 finished all but unchanged at 7,675.70 (-0.02%), the Nasdaq slipped 0.08% to 26,130.20 and the Dow 0.21% to 53,463.88. Nvidia fell close to 1.6% in the regular session, to $210.65, before reporting. The 10-year Treasury yield rose about two basis points to 4.64% and, according to reports, traders kept their bet on a rate hike this year. The trap of the day was in the PCE: the headline ran hot —up 0.2% on the month and 3.7% year-over-year, above the 3.6% expected— but the core, the one the Fed actually watches, landed right in line at 3.3% year-over-year. The inflation scare was in the headline, not in the number that sets policy.
Yahoo Finance (cierre del 26 de agosto de 2026); Bloomberg (bono y expectativas de tipos); Bureau of Economic Analysis (PCE de julio)
Also that day
Nvidia beats after the close —$96.22bn revenue and $2.22 adjusted EPS— and guides Q3 to about $108bn, above consensus
What reprices the whole AI cycle is not the reported profit, it is the guidance: lifting next quarter's revenue to about $108bn says data-centre demand is still accelerating, and that pulls along chip and memory suppliers and the utilities that power those centres —an effect that shows up quarter by quarter in their accounts, not in tonight's reaction. The nuance that matters: it is the fourth straight quarter a beat-and-raise is not enough to lift the stock, because the bar, the so-called 'expectations premium', already prices in perfection.
CNBC (resultados de Nvidia del 2T fiscal 2027, 26 de agosto de 2026)
- (08:30 NY)
Weekly jobless claims
Several straight weeks stuck near 200,000: nobody is firing yet. It is the series that would confirm whether the labour cooldown turns from less hiring into layoffs — two very different things for the Fed.
- Actual
- 203 mil
- Previous
- 206 mil
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
What it means and what it affects
How many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time last week. It is the most frequent labour reading there is.
Its value is the frequency: weekly, so it catches a turn in the labour market weeks before any monthly release. It rarely moves markets on its own; what moves markets is its trend.
If it comes in above
More claims point to a deteriorating labour market and support bonds.
If it comes in below
Fewer claims confirm a labour market that is holding.
The catch: It is noisy week to week. Look at the four-week average, not the single print — and holiday and back-to-school weeks get distorted by seasonal adjustment.
Source: Department of Labor · thousands of claims
Second-tier macroUS
Session close
A tech-led rebound —the best day for the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 since 4 August— after Nvidia beat last night. The Nasdaq rose 1.57% to 26,541.35, the S&P 500 0.72% to 7,730.99 and the Dow just 0.20% to 53,569.44. Nvidia jumped close to 9% and dragged semiconductors along; software roared back, with Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Okta higher after their results. The 10-year Treasury yield barely moved, around 4.65%. The trap of the day was in the breadth: despite the rally headline, the Dow rose a tenth of what the Nasdaq did —the gains concentrated in AI and software, not in the broad market—. And the macro backdrop cut the other way: jobless claims fell to 203,000, a sign there are still no layoffs, while, according to reports, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said from Jackson Hole that rates are not restraining the economy and did not rule out raising them in September.
Yahoo Finance y CNBC (cierre del 27 de agosto de 2026); U.S. Department of Labor (peticiones de subsidio); CNBC (declaraciones de Schmid)
Also that day
Kansas City Fed President Schmid says at Jackson Hole that rates are not restraining the economy and opens the door to a September hike, on the eve of Warsh's debut
Ahead of Warsh's first speech, a voting member puts on the table the opposite of what the market is pricing: not a cut, but a possible hike on 16 September. It decides nothing today —Schmid does not vote alone— but it sets part of the frame through which the Fed will be read until that meeting; if that bias takes hold, what reprices is everything rate-sensitive, and that shows up in the pricing from here to September, not in today's session.
CNBC (27 de agosto de 2026)
Crude falls toward $81 for a fourth straight session after an Iran-Oman agreement on the waters and revenues of the Strait of Hormuz
It is the unwinding of the geopolitical premium this week's sanctions had opened: a deal that lowers the risk of a shutdown at Hormuz eases pressure on the channel through which much of the Middle East's crude passes. Cheaper oil is not felt tomorrow in inflation or in the margin of whoever transports or manufactures: it filters through over the following months, and in the opposite direction to July's scare.
Trading Economics (mercado del crudo, 27 de agosto de 2026); Bloomberg
- (10:00 NY)
Kevin Warsh's first speech as Fed Chair at Jackson Hole
The set-piece of the week. His debut as chair, with the committee split by three dissenters who wanted a hike and the long bond at a 20-year high. It brings no decision: it sets the frame through which the Fed will be read until the September meeting. The symposium runs from 27 to 29 August.
Central banksUS - (10:00 NY)
University of Michigan consumer sentiment (August, final)
The final revision of the August reading. What matters is not the mood but the one-year inflation expectations it carries: the Fed watches them closely, and an uptick there weighs more than the confidence headline.
- Actual
- 51,7
- Previous
- 51,0
Source: University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers
Second-tier macroUS
Session close
A flat, slightly lower session, digesting Warsh's Jackson Hole debut. The Dow finished all but unchanged at 53,559.99 (-0.02%, -9.45 points), the S&P 500 slipped 0.25% to 7,711.76 and the Nasdaq 0.52% to 26,402.42. The trap of the day was not in the indices, which barely moved, but in rates: Warsh said inflation is still above the 2% target and that recent readings 'do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved', and according to reports traders sent the odds of a September hike from 35% to 57% in a single session. The two-year Treasury yield jumped about 8 basis points during the speech, the 10-year rose four to 4.72% and the 30-year two to 5.21%. Michigan confirmed its weak reading: final August sentiment came in at 51.7 (revised up from the 51.0 preliminary), though one-year inflation expectations actually fell to 4.0% from the 4.3% preliminary. Away from the index, PayPal plunged more than 12% as its buyout collapsed.
Yahoo Finance y CNBC (cierre del 28 de agosto de 2026); Federal Reserve (discurso de Warsh); University of Michigan (confianza de agosto)
Also that day
Warsh, in his Jackson Hole debut, warns inflation is still high and the Fed 'has more work to do', not ruling out rate hikes
It is the frame through which the Fed will be read until the 16 September meeting. Warsh committed to no decision, but by saying inflation's underlying trends have not meaningfully improved he partly vindicated the three dissenters who were already pushing for a hike — and, according to reports, the bet on a September hike jumped from 35% to 57% in a single session. What reprices is not today's equity market but everything rate-sensitive between now and September: that shows up in the curve —the two-year jumped about 8 basis points during the speech— more than in the index, which barely moved.
CNBC y The Washington Post (28 de agosto de 2026); Federal Reserve (keynote de Warsh)
The Stripe-Advent consortium abandons its takeover of PayPal —about $53bn, one of the largest leveraged buyouts ever— and the stock falls more than 12%
PayPal's board had rejected a $60.50-per-share offer in July as insufficient and cited regulatory and financing hurdles; with the buyer walking away, the takeover premium propping up the stock evaporates. Beyond PayPal, a leveraged buyout of this size failing to close says something about appetite for large debt-funded deals with the long bond at multi-decade highs: financing a deal like this costs more today than a year ago, and that cools M&A expectations across the whole payments sector, not just one stock.
Bloomberg y Axios (28 de agosto de 2026)
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Previous weeks
- Week of 7–13 September 2026Inflation week: PPI and CPI test whether strong employment can coexist with enough disinflation ahead of the Fed; Oracle gauges real AI-cloud demand.
- Week of 31 August – 6 September 2026Jobs week: the last big labour print before an FOMC now flirting with a hike, and Broadcom sets the AI note.
- Week of 17–23 August 2026The FOMC minutes rule a data-light week.
- Week of 10–16 August 2026CPI runs the week: July inflation decides whether Warsh's Fed still has room to move.
- Week of 3–9 August 2026All eyes on US employment.