Economic calendar

The US–Iran ceasefire expires and Brent jumps to $90

Crude is an input cost, not a headline that burns out in a day. A sustained rise in oil feeds into inflation with a lag and squeezes the margin of everyone who burns it —transport, chemicals, airlines— a couple of quarters out, not tomorrow. And it is the lever that pushed long-dated yields today: the market is again demanding an inflation premium it had gone months without charging.

Yahoo Finance — mercados, 17 de agosto de 2026

The 30-year Treasury yield hits its highest since 2007

The long end is the rate off which almost everything else is discounted: mortgages, the valuation of growth stocks, term corporate debt. When it rises on an inflation premium rather than on more growth, it makes the future more expensive without promising more profit —and that weighs first where value sits furthest out in time: expensive tech and residential construction.

Yahoo Finance — mercados, 17 de agosto de 2026

50% tariffs on Canada hinge on a deal before midnight

The US is threatening a 50% duty on some $20 billion of Canadian goods —from autos to dairy and alcohol— with talks running up to 12:01 a.m. Wednesday and no deal at the close. A tariff is a cost paid at the border that passes down the chain with a lag: it does not show up in prices tomorrow but a couple of quarters out, in the margin of whoever builds with Canadian inputs —autos, materials, food—. What trades today is not the tariff but the uncertainty over whether it lands; the real effect, if it does, is measured in earnings, not in the headline.

The Washington Post y Bloomberg — comercio EE. UU.-Canadá, 18 de agosto de 2026

The semiconductor sector falls near 5%; Fabrinet sinks 11% despite beating estimates

A company beating estimates and still slumping says more than the number itself: Fabrinet beat and fell 11% because the market looked at margins, cash and guidance, not the revenue headline. With the long bond near a near-20-year high, the group is repricing by another route —what AI profits years out are worth today, now that funding them costs more—. And it comes just over a week before Nvidia's results (the 26th), which set the bar for the whole sector: today's drop is the market adjusting expectations ahead of that date.

Bloomberg y Yahoo Finance — mercados, 18 de agosto de 2026

FOMC minutes show a divided Fed: three dissenters wanted to raise rates

The committee held the rate at 3.50%-3.75%, but the July minutes show how close it came to moving: three regional presidents —Hammack (Cleveland), Kashkari (Minneapolis) and Logan (Dallas)— preferred a quarter-point hike, and several more members warned tightening would be needed if inflation does not ease, with supply shocks and AI spending as the risk. What changes for a trader is not the headline —there was no decision— but the split: a Fed leaning toward a hike, with the long bond near a 20-year high, makes the discounting of everything earned out in time more expensive, and it weighs first where profit sits furthest away. Warsh also floated cutting the meetings from eight to six a year, which would space out the chances to move the rate.

Reserva Federal — actas del FOMC del 28-29 de julio de 2026, publicadas el 19 de agosto; Bloomberg

The Treasury doubles its long-dated debt buybacks and the 30-year bond eases off its highs

Bessent announced he is more than doubling the maximum size of his buybacks of 10- to 30-year debt —from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, from September 9 to November 4—. It is not a change in inflation or monetary policy: it is bond-market plumbing, a way to add liquidity and lower funding costs after the long end hit a near-20-year high. That is why today's rebound is worth separating from the macro: the session ended three down days as yields fell by this route, not because the data or the Fed turned —the minutes, in fact, were hawkish—. The relief shows up in the bond price now; whether it holds long-term rates down depends on inflation cooperating, and that is another story.

CNBC y Bloomberg — Tesoro de EE. UU., 19 de agosto de 2026

Walmart beats on earnings but falls over 9% as its US sales growth slows

Earnings beat ($0.81 versus $0.73 expected) and the stock still sank: that says the market did not look at the headline but at same-store sales, which grew 2.6% against the 3.7% forecast. Walmart reprices all of retail the same day, so the read spreads to the sector. And the nuance matters: the company put the slowdown down to customers trimming spending amid high gas prices —a consumer tightening up shows here before it does in the official consumption data, and it points to spending cooling into the coming quarters, not tomorrow.

Yahoo Finance — resultados de Walmart y mercados, 20 de agosto de 2026

The Treasury's plan to tame long rates deflates in a day and yields climb again

On Tuesday the 30-year bond hit a near-20-year high; on Wednesday the Treasury's move to double its buybacks of long-dated debt eased it. Today that relief reversed: yields rose again and dragged stocks down. It confirms what was flagged yesterday —the buyback is bond-market plumbing, not a change in inflation or the Fed—: when the long end rises on a premium rather than on growth, it makes the discounting of everything earned out in time more expensive, and it weighs first where profit sits furthest away. That the calm lasted a single day suggests the pressure on the long end is structural and is not fixed by a market operation.

CNBC — mercados, 20 de agosto de 2026

Trump declares 'economic warfare' on Iran and puts its oil buyers in the crosshairs

Trump announced what he called «the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country», with Iran at its center: he wants to shut down oil smuggling, exchange houses, ship registries and front companies, and he threatens to penalize any nation that helps Tehran evade sanctions. The implicit target is China, which buys the bulk of Iranian oil, so the measure opens two fronts at once. The oil one is already visible: Brent strung together a fifth straight up session to brush $94, a monthly high. But crude is an input cost that passes through with a lag —transport, chemicals and airlines feel it in the margin a couple of quarters out, not tomorrow— and the standoff with China is a trade risk that trades not in the headline but in how the relationship evolves. What trades today is the risk premium; the real effect is measured in earnings and in the energy bill later on.

Bloomberg y CNBC — «guerra económica» de EE. UU. contra Irán, 19-21 de agosto de 2026