The week ahead
Economic calendar
Week of 28 September – 4 October 2026
U.S. jobs and inflation week: JOLTS, PCE, ISM and payrolls, with Micron as a semiconductor bellwether.
13 releasesMadrid time. New York time in brackets.
The event of the week
Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate (September)
Friday 2 October · 14:30 (08:30 NY)
The week's star release. Payrolls, unemployment, wages, hours and revisions should be read together. Jobs and pay above reference readings could support a more restrictive interpretation; in line, continuity; below with unemployment rising, more growth concern. The initial market reaction needs confirmation.
How to read the colours
- Top impact
- Second-tier macro
- Central banks
- Earnings
- Market plumbing
- (10:00 NY)
JOLTS job openings (August)
Measures openings, hires, quits and layoffs. Above the prior reading with firm hiring would suggest resilient labour demand; in line, stability; below, cooling. Revisions and rates matter alongside the total.
- Previous
- 7,3 millones de vacantes (julio de 2026)
not out yetSource: BLS — calendario https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm · informe de julio https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm
Second-tier macroUS - (10:00 NY)
U.S. consumer confidence (September)
Compare present conditions and expectations. Gains in both would be consistent with firmer spending; a mixed reading calls for separating jobs, income and prices; weakness in both raises the risk of spending caution. This is a survey, not actual sales.
Second-tier macroUS - (12:40 NY)
Fed Governor Barr: economic outlook
Speech on the economic outlook. Watch for explicit changes to the assessment of inflation, employment and monetary policy; the event title does not prejudge the remarks.
Central banksUS
- (08:15 NY)
ADP private employment (September)
A private estimate distinct from official payrolls. Above the prior reading suggests firmer hiring; in line, continuity; below, softer momentum. It does not mechanically predict Friday's payrolls.
- Previous
- +38 mil empleos privados (agosto de 2026)
not out yetSource: ADP — informe de agosto y anuncio del próximo https://mediacenter.adp.com/2026-09-02-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-38,000-Jobs-in-August
Second-tier macroUS - (08:30 NY)
PCE inflation, personal income and spending (August)
The release covers headline and core PCE inflation, real spending and income, alongside an annual accounts update. Inflation and spending above prior readings would be a more restrictive mix; in line, continuity; lower inflation with steady spending, a more favourable disinflation mix. Revisions can change comparisons.
- Previous
- PCE general +3,7 % interanual · subyacente +3,3 % interanual (julio de 2026)
not out yetSource: BEA — calendario https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule · informe de julio y aviso de actualización anual https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2026
What it means and what it affects
Inflation measured through personal consumption expenditure, excluding food and energy. A different basket and method from CPI.
It is the inflation measure the Fed says it targets, so it carries more weight than its press coverage suggests. It comes after CPI, by which point the market has already estimated it — which is why it moves less, except when it deviates from that estimate.
If it comes in above
It delays cuts with more authority than CPI, because it is the one the Fed watches.
If it comes in below
It confirms disinflation on the measure that actually counts for the decision.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis · % year-on-year and monthly
Top impactUS - (08:30 NY)
U.S. GDP third estimate and annual revision (Q2)
Includes the third Q2 estimate and historical updates. Above the prior estimate points to higher measured activity; in line, little change; below, a lower growth base. Read consumption, investment and revisions.
Top impactUS - (08:30 NY)
Advance goods trade and inventories (August)
Advance trade and inventory data can change GDP estimates. A wider deficit and weak stocks weigh on the estimate; a narrower deficit and firm restocking support it. These are nominal, revisable figures.
Second-tier macroUS - (16:30 NY)
Micron: fiscal Q4 earnings call
The call is confirmed for 2:30 p.m. Mountain Time. DRAM/NAND revenue and margins, HBM memory, inventories and next-quarter guidance matter for the sector. The company did not specify an exact results release time here; this time is for the call.
EarningsUS
- (08:30 NY)
Weekly jobless claims
Initial claims track new layoffs and continuing claims unemployment persistence. Above prior readings in both would be consistent with cooling; in line, stability; below, low separations. Revisions and the four-week average filter noise.
- Previous
- 197 mil solicitudes iniciales (semana terminada el 19 de septiembre de 2026; publicado el 24 de septiembre)
not out yetSource: U.S. Department of Labor — publicación semanal https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf · U.S. Department of Labor — comunicado del 24 de septiembre de 2026 https://www.dol.gov/index.php/newsroom/releases
What it means and what it affects
How many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time last week. It is the most frequent labour reading there is.
Its value is the frequency: weekly, so it catches a turn in the labour market weeks before any monthly release. It rarely moves markets on its own; what moves markets is its trend.
If it comes in above
More claims point to a deteriorating labour market and support bonds.
If it comes in below
Fewer claims confirm a labour market that is holding.
The catch: It is noisy week to week. Look at the four-week average, not the single print — and holiday and back-to-school weeks get distorted by seasonal adjustment.
Source: Department of Labor · thousands of claims
Second-tier macroUS - (10:00 NY)
ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)
A manufacturing activity survey. An upside surprise with firm orders and employment points to greater momentum; in line, continuity; downside, slower growth. Prices paid can alter the rates interpretation even if the headline weakens.
Source: Institute for Supply Management — calendario de publicaciones https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/
What it means and what it affects
A survey of manufacturing purchasing managers on orders, production, employment and prices. Above 50 the sector is expanding; below, contracting.
It is one of the first releases of the month and it is a survey, not a count: it arrives ahead of actual activity and is used as a leading read. Manufacturing is a small share of US GDP, but it turns before the rest of the economy.
If it comes in above
Stronger manufacturing supports cyclicals and commodities, and reinforces the case for an economy that is holding up.
If it comes in below
A weak print, especially below 50 for several months running, feeds the slowdown thesis and usually benefits bonds.
The catch: The prices-paid sub-index often moves more than the headline, because it is an early inflation clue. And the level matters less than the direction: going from 47 to 49 is still contraction, but it is an improvement.
Source: Institute for Supply Management · index, 50 is the threshold
Second-tier macroUS - (13:30 NY)
Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: economy and monetary policy
Remarks and Q&A on the economy and monetary policy. Watch whether he qualifies the assessment of the week's jobs and inflation data.
Central banksUS
- (08:30 NY)
Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate (September)
The week's star release. Payrolls, unemployment, wages, hours and revisions should be read together. Jobs and pay above reference readings could support a more restrictive interpretation; in line, continuity; below with unemployment rising, more growth concern. The initial market reaction needs confirmation.
- Previous
- +162 mil nóminas · 4,1 % desempleo (agosto de 2026)
not out yetSource: BLS — calendario de octubre https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched_list.htm · informe de agosto https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm
What it means and what it affects
How many jobs were created or lost in the US last month, excluding agriculture. It arrives with the unemployment rate and hourly earnings, and the three are read together.
It is the single biggest market mover of the month, because it touches both halves of the Fed’s mandate at once: employment and inflation. A strong labour market sustains consumption and pushes wages; a cooling one brings rate cuts forward. Everything traded until the next Fed meeting gets recalibrated with this number.
If it comes in above
More jobs than expected usually reads as a strong economy and a Fed in no hurry to cut: the dollar and yields tend to rise. For equities it is ambiguous — good economy, but expensive money for longer.
If it comes in below
Fewer jobs brings rate cuts forward, which tends to lift bonds and weaken the dollar. Equities celebrate it… until the number is so bad it stops meaning “lower rates” and starts meaning “recession”.
The catch: The revision to the previous two months comes in the same release and often matters more than the headline. A good headline with a hundred-thousand downward revision is, in fact, a bad number.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · thousands of jobs
Top impactUS - (10:00 NY)
Manufacturers' orders and shipments (August)
Full report on manufacturing orders, shipments and inventories. Broad orders above prior readings reinforce demand; in line suggests continuity; below points to less momentum. Separate transportation and defence.
Second-tier macroUS
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Previous weeks
- Week of 14–20 September 2026Central-bank week: U.S. retail sales, housing and industry arrive around the Federal Reserve and Bank of England decisions, with two auctions testing demand for duration.
- Week of 7–13 September 2026Inflation week: PPI and CPI test whether strong employment can coexist with enough disinflation ahead of the Fed; Oracle gauges real AI-cloud demand.
- Week of 31 August – 6 September 2026Jobs week: the last big labour print before an FOMC now flirting with a hike, and Broadcom sets the AI note.
- Week of 24–30 August 2026PCE and Warsh's Jackson Hole debut set the week; Nvidia provides the counterpoint.
- Week of 17–23 August 2026The FOMC minutes rule a data-light week.
- Week of 10–16 August 2026CPI runs the week: July inflation decides whether Warsh's Fed still has room to move.
- Week of 3–9 August 2026All eyes on US employment.